Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries ∗ †
In this paper an open economy model of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve incorporating three different factors of production, domestic labor and imported as well as domestically produced intermediate goods, is developed and estimated for 9 euro area countries and the euro area aggregate. This general model nests existing closed economy and open economy models as special cases. We find that struc...
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This paper addresses the issue of testing the ‘hybrid’ New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) through Vector Autoregressive (VAR) systems and likelihood methods, giving special emphasis to the case where the variables are non-stationary. The idea is to use a VAR for both the inflation rate and the explanatory variable(s) to approximate the dynamics of the system and derive testable restrictions. A...
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Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. New Keynesian Phillips curves describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of these curves under generalized methods of moments (GMM) and traces this syndrome...
متن کاملIntroduction to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
I n most industrialized economies inflation tends to be pro-cyclical; that is, inflation is high during times of high economic activity. When economic activity is measured by the unemployment rate this statistical relationship is known as the Phillips curve. The Phillips curve is sometimes viewed as a menu for monetary policymakers, that is, they can choose between high inflation and low unempl...
متن کاملInflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
www.philadelphiafed.org to the financial instruments that help guard savings from being eroded by inflation.1 Also, households and firms often write contracts that are stated in dollar amounts (nominal terms). A worker may, for example, sign a contract to work over the upcoming year for a fixed dollar amount. If inflation turns out to be higher than what was expected at the time the contract wa...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Empirica
سال: 2016
ISSN: 0340-8744,1573-6911
DOI: 10.1007/s10663-016-9314-x